UN Global Digital Compact

Cross-jurisdiction comparison

How peer instruments treat the topics UN Global Digital Compact governs.

°= industry self-imposed voluntary framework. Comparing a voluntary code's "governs" tint with a binding regulation's "governs" tint flattens the legal-force distinction; use the instrument-page banner for the operative status of each.

Does this instrument’s approach work? — the social-science evidence

Aggregated over the 11 topics this instrument governs: whether each harm is empirically real, and whether the peer-reviewed evidence shows governance reduces it. The badge is the epistemic status of the evidence— “thin”/“absent” efficacy evidence is itself a finding (the “second silence”). Each epistemic-status label is Policy Window's editorial assessment of the cited evidence base (a structured classification), not a verdict any single source issues.

Of the 11 governed topics with a social-science evidence review, evidence that governance reduces the harm is established for 0, contested for 0, thin for 2, and absent for 9 — for most, no replicated study yet shows this instrument's approach works (the "second silence").

• AI-Driven Worker Displacement

  • Is the harm real?evidence: contested

    AI-driven labour displacement is demonstrably real but localized rather than economy-wide as of 2025-2026. Causal microdata find measurable harm in directly exposed segments: a difference-in-differences study of the Upwork freelance market found that after ChatGPT's release, freelancers in more AI-exposed occupations (e.g. writing) saw ~2% fewer contracts and ~5% lower monthly earnings, with larger losses among previously high-skilled workers (Hui, Reshef & Zhou 2024). Effects concentrate in entry-level and highly-automatable roles while aggregate US employment and wages show little disruption through 2024-2025 — so macro-level harm remains genuinely contested even as targeted-segment harm is established; much deployment to date augments rather than substitutes, raising novice productivity ~34% in call-center work (Brynjolfsson, Li & Raymond 2025).

    Sources: Hui, Reshef & Zhou 2024 ('The Short-Term Effects of Generative AI on Employment', Organization Science); Brynjolfsson, Li & Raymond 2025 ('Generative AI at Work', Quarterly Journal of Economics 140(2):889); Acemoglu 2024 ('The Simple Macroeconomics of AI', NBER WP 32487); Autor 2024 ('Applying AI to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs', NBER WP 32140)

  • Does governance work?evidence: thin

    There are essentially no impact evaluations of governance specifically targeting AI-driven displacement; current responses (OECD/GPAI guidance, reskilling initiatives, safety-net proposals) are at the recommendation stage, so 'does AI-displacement policy work' is answered only by extrapolation from the broader displaced-worker literature. That analogue base is robust but shows modest, mixed results: Card, Kluve & Weber's (2018) meta-analysis of 200+ active-labour-market evaluations finds training has small/insignificant short-run effects that improve only over the medium-to-long run, US Trade Adjustment Assistance evaluations find largely neutral-to-negative earnings effects (Schochet et al. 2012), and the JTPA randomized evaluation found weak earnings effects for the dislocated-worker stream. Recent syntheses note retraining yields smaller gains precisely when workers move into high-AI-exposure occupations — so the evidence that standard tools reduce AI-displacement harm is thin and early.

    Sources: Card, Kluve & Weber 2018 ('What Works? A Meta-Analysis of ... Active Labor Market Program Evaluations', JEEA 16(3):894); Schochet et al. 2012 (Trade Adjustment Assistance Program impacts, Mathematica/USDOL); Bloom et al. 1997 (National JTPA Study, Journal of Human Resources); Brookings 2025 ('AI Labor Displacement and the Limits of Worker Retraining'); OECD 2023-2025 Employment Outlook

• Catastrophic & Existential Risk

  • Is the harm real?evidence: contested

    The catastrophic-uplift premise is genuinely contested: the empirical uplift studies that exist find current frontier models add little. RAND's red-team study found no statistically significant difference in the viability of bioweapon-attack plans produced with vs. without LLMs (Mouton, Lucas & Guest 2024), and OpenAI's 100-participant trial found GPT-4 gave at most a mild, non-significant accuracy uplift (mean +0.88 out of 10 for PhD experts, +0.25 for students; Patwardhan et al. 2024). Honest caveat: the harm is forward-looking, not yet observed — expert opinion on the catastrophic tail is sharply split (median AI researcher puts ~5% on extremely-bad/extinction outcomes, mean ~9-16% across differently-framed questions, n=2,778; Grace et al. 2024), and forecasters underestimated how fast risk-relevant capabilities (e.g. virology troubleshooting) actually arrived (Forecasting Research Institute 2025), so the relevant capabilities are a moving target rather than a settled magnitude.

    Sources: Mouton, Lucas & Guest 2024 (RAND RR-A2977-2, Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks: Results of a Red-Team Study); Patwardhan et al. 2024 (OpenAI, Building an Early Warning System for LLM-aided Biological Threat Creation); Grace et al. 2024 (Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI, arXiv:2401.02843); Forecasting Research Institute 2025 (Forecasting LLM-enabled Biorisk and the Efficacy of Safeguards)

  • Does governance work?evidence: absent

    There is essentially no impact evidence that catastrophic-risk governance reduces catastrophic risk, and structurally there cannot yet be: the harm is a low-probability civilisational tail event, so no controlled trial or before/after evaluation of a realised catastrophe is possible. The dominant instruments are recent, voluntary developer frameworks (Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy 2023; OpenAI's Preparedness Framework 2023) built on if-then capability thresholds the developers themselves describe as speculative and qualitative rather than validated risk thresholds. The closest evidence is adjacent and indirect: trained-in deceptive behaviours can persist through standard safety training (Hubinger et al. 2024) — a demonstration that current mitigation may be insufficient, not that any governance regime works — and Anthropic's documented loosening of earlier commitments (RSP 2025 dropped the original pledge to define higher-tier ASL evaluations before developing the corresponding models) illustrates that even the strongest voluntary regimes lack external enforcement or measured efficacy.

    Sources: Anthropic 2023 (Responsible Scaling Policy); OpenAI 2023 (Preparedness Framework); Hubinger et al. 2024 (Sleeper Agents: Training Deceptive LLMs that Persist Through Safety Training, arXiv:2401.05566); Hendrycks, Mazeika & Woodside 2023 (An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks, arXiv:2306.12001)

• Development-Rights Framings

  • Is the harm real?evidence: thin

    Development-rights framing is a normative/doctrinal frame, so its empirical status splits: the underlying North-South asymmetry it responds to is real and documented, but the claim that a development-rights diagnosis is the correct one is contested doctrine, not a settled finding. The strongest empirical anchor is the exploitative-data-labour evidence — Miceli & Posada's (2022) multi-method qualitative study of Latin American annotation work (Foucauldian dispositif analysis of 210 instruction documents, 55 interviews, plus participant observation) found workers paid cents-per-task with strict surveillance and whose worldviews are subordinated to requesters' — which substantiates the extraction the frame names, building on the data-colonialism thesis (Couldry & Mejias 2019), and extended by comparative political-economy work on AI annotation 'data empires' (Wu, Muldoon & Xia 2025). Honest caveat: whether 'digital self-determination' or 'Global-South sovereignty' is the right operational response (and whether it conflicts with the EU AIA's rights-based design) is a conceptual/legal question with essentially no empirical evidence base — the frame is established as a critique, thin as a tested governance prescription.

    Sources: Miceli & Posada 2022, 'The Data-Production Dispositif' (Proc. ACM Hum.-Comput. Interact. 6, CSCW2, Art. 460:1-37); Couldry & Mejias 2019, 'Data Colonialism' (Television & New Media 20(4):336-349); Wu, Muldoon & Xia 2025, 'Global data empires' (Big Data & Society 12(2))

  • Does governance work?evidence: absent

    There is no rigorous impact evaluation showing that development-rights / digital-self-determination / sovereignty governance achieves its stated developmental or self-determination aims — the evidence that the frame 'works' as policy is itself missing, largely because the frame is recent, heterogeneous, and rarely instantiated in a single measurable instrument. The closest empirical literature studies one common operational proxy (data localization) and measures economic cost rather than the frame's goals: Ferracane, Kren & van der Marel's (2020) firm/industry productivity analysis finds data-policy restrictiveness associated with lower TFP in data-intensive downstream sectors, Ferracane & van der Marel's (2021) gravity analysis finds data restrictions inhibit trade in digital services, and Bauer, Lee-Makiyama, van der Marel & Verschelde's (2014) GTAP general-equilibrium estimates project GDP losses from localization across seven jurisdictions including Brazil and India. None tests whether sovereignty framing reduces extractive asymmetry or advances local AI capability — so claims on both the benefit and cost sides rest on weak or indirect evidence.

    Sources: Ferracane, Kren & van der Marel 2020, 'Do data policy restrictions impact the productivity performance of firms and industries?' (Review of International Economics 28(3):676-722); Ferracane & van der Marel 2021, 'Do data policy restrictions inhibit trade in services?' (Review of World Economics 157(4):727-776); Bauer, Lee-Makiyama, van der Marel & Verschelde 2014, 'The Costs of Data Localisation: Friendly Fire on Economic Recovery' (ECIPE Occasional Paper 3/2014)

• Environmental Impact of AI Training

  • Is the harm real?evidence: established

    The resource demands of AI compute are empirically documented at the model level: Strubell et al. (2019) quantified large-NLP training energy/carbon, Luccioni et al. (2023) estimated BLOOM's training at ~24.7 tCO2eq (dynamic power) rising to ~50.5 tCO2eq with manufacturing and deployment, Li et al. (2023) estimated GPT-3-scale training in US datacenters can evaporate on the order of hundreds of thousands of litres of freshwater (their central figure ~700,000 L), and Luccioni, Jernite & Strubell (2024) showed generative inference is markedly more energy-intensive per query than task-specific models; at the macro scale the IEA (2024) and de Vries (2023) document rapidly rising datacenter electricity demand. Honest caveat: absolute estimates vary by up to orders of magnitude with grid carbon intensity, hardware, utilisation and accounting boundaries, and cleanly attributing the AI-specific increment (versus general datacenter and crypto growth) remains genuinely contested — the IEA itself bundles AI with datacenters and crypto — so the existence of the footprint is established while its magnitude and trajectory are not.

    Sources: Strubell, Ganesh & McCallum 2019 (ACL Anthology P19-1355; 'Energy and Policy Considerations for Deep Learning in NLP'); Luccioni, Viguier & Ligozat 2023 (JMLR 24; BLOOM 176B carbon footprint, 24.7/50.5 tCO2eq; arXiv:2211.02001); Li, Yang, Islam & Ren 2023 (arXiv:2304.03271, 'Making AI Less Thirsty', later Comm. ACM 2025); Luccioni, Jernite & Strubell 2024 (ACM FAccT '24, 'Power Hungry Processing', DOI 10.1145/3630106.3658542); de Vries 2023 (Joule 7(10):2191-2194, DOI 10.1016/j.joule.2023.09.004); IEA 2024 (Electricity 2024)

  • Does governance work?evidence: absent

    There is no impact evaluation showing that any AI-specific environmental-governance instrument reduces energy, water or carbon use, because every named instrument is voluntary or non-binding and very recent: EU AI Act Art. 95 codes of conduct are explicitly optional with no sanctions, and NIST AI 600-1 and the G7 Hiroshima Code are guidance, not enforceable caps. The closest analogue evaluation literature is divided in a way that disfavours the voluntary form chosen here: rigorous reviews find voluntary environmental programs generally fail to produce significant abatement beyond business-as-usual (Koehler 2007; Morgenstern & Pizer 2007), whereas the one form with credible positive evidence is mandatory disclosure (Downar et al. 2021 found a UK carbon-reporting mandate cut emissions ~8% versus a control group) which the AI instruments do not yet impose, leaving the proposition that AI environmental governance works essentially untested.

    Sources: EU AI Act Art. 95 / Recital 142 (Reg. (EU) 2024/1689); NIST AI 600-1 (2024, GenAI Profile); G7 Hiroshima Process International Code of Conduct (30 Oct 2023); Koehler 2007 (Policy Studies Journal 35(4):689-722); Morgenstern & Pizer (eds.) 2007 (Reality Check, RFF Press); Downar, Ernstberger, Reichelstein, Schwenen & Zaklan 2021 (Review of Accounting Studies 26(3):1137-1175)

• Foundation Models / GPAI

  • Is the harm real?evidence: contested

    Whether the foundation-model category maps to a coherent capability/risk tier is genuinely contested. The original case rests on scale-driven 'emergent abilities' that appear unpredictably above a size threshold (Wei et al. 2022; Ganguli et al. 2022 documented capabilities that are smoothly predictable in aggregate loss yet locally surprising), but Schaeffer, Miranda & Koyejo (2023, a NeurIPS Outstanding Paper) showed many 'emergent' jumps are artefacts of discontinuous metrics and dissolve under linear/continuous scoring — implying capability scales more smoothly than a sharp tier would suggest. Honest caveat: this is a live empirical disagreement about measurement, not a settled finding either way, and compute (the regulatory proxy) is an imperfect stand-in for capability or risk regardless of which side is right.

    Sources: Wei et al. 2022 (Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models, TMLR; arXiv:2206.07682); Schaeffer, Miranda & Koyejo 2023 (Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage?, NeurIPS 2023, Outstanding Paper; arXiv:2304.15004); Ganguli et al. 2022 (Predictability and Surprise in Large Generative Models, ACM FAccT; DOI 10.1145/3531146.3533229)

  • Does governance work?evidence: absent

    There is no impact evaluation showing that GPAI/foundation-model governance reduces harm — the rules are too new (EU AI Act GPAI obligations and the 10^25-FLOP systemic-risk presumption only began binding on 2 August 2025) and the central regulatory lever is itself contested: Hooker (2024) argues compute thresholds are a shortsighted proxy because compute does not reliably track capability or risk, and the thresholds already diverge across jurisdictions (EU 10^25 vs. the now-rescinded US EO 14110's 10^26 operations, rescinded 20 January 2025). The mandated mitigation methods also lack validated efficacy: model evaluation and red-teaming face well-documented coverage limits and an 'audit gap' in the survey/position literature (behavioural testing cannot establish the absence of untested failure modes), and adversarial red-teaming repeatedly defeats deployed safeguards — the UK AI Safety Institute reports finding universal jailbreaks for every frontier system it has tested, and a large public agent-injection competition elicited policy violations across all 22 frontier models tested from ~1.8M attacks (Zou et al. 2025). Even compliant evaluation therefore cannot yet certify the safety the rules demand. (Caveat: this is an absence-of-evidence claim — no efficacy study has been done — not evidence the rules are ineffective.)

    Sources: Hooker 2024 (On the Limitations of Compute Thresholds as a Governance Strategy, arXiv:2407.05694); EU AI Act Arts. 51 & 55 (GPAI systemic-risk presumption, 10^25 FLOP; binding 2 Aug 2025); US EO 14110 (10^26-operation reporting threshold, rescinded 20 Jan 2025 by EO 14148); Zou et al. 2025 (Security Challenges in AI Agent Deployment: Insights from a Large Scale Public Competition / Gray Swan Arena, arXiv:2507.20526 — 22 frontier agents, ~1.8M attacks); UK AI Safety/Security Institute, Frontier AI Trends Report (universal jailbreaks for every system tested); METR, Common Elements of Frontier AI Safety Policies (2024)

• International Coordination

  • Is the harm real?evidence: contested

    The DESCRIPTIVE premise is well-established: IR scholarship now treats global AI governance as a fragmented 'regime complex' of partially overlapping G7/G20/OECD/GPAI/UN/standards-body arrangements with no central hierarchy (Tallberg et al. 2023 — verified verbatim: 'the emerging governance architecture for AI can be described as a regime complex'; Cihon, Maas & Kemp 2020). But the implied HARM — that forum-shopping and regulatory arbitrage cause a measurable race-to-the-bottom or relocate AI development to lax jurisdictions — is largely theorized/anticipated rather than empirically demonstrated for AI; Tallberg et al. explicitly flag forum-shopping as a dynamic whose presence in the AI regime complex is an open empirical question ('Establishing whether these patterns and dynamics are key features also of the AI regime complex stand out as important priorities in future research'). Honest caveat: the strongest empirical arbitrage evidence comes from analogue footloose digital markets (e.g., ICO reallocation after US securities enforcement) — itself a mixed/contested literature — not from AI firms, so the magnitude of coordination-failure harm in AI specifically remains contested and under-measured.

    Sources: Tallberg, Erman, Furendal, Geith, Klamberg & Lundgren 2023 (International Studies Review 25(3): viad040); Cihon, Maas & Kemp 2020 (Should AI Governance be Centralised?, AIES '20: 228-234); Lancieri, Edelson & Bechtold 2025 (AI Regulation: Competition, Arbitrage & Regulatory Capture, Theoretical Inquiries in Law 26(1): 239-262)

  • Does governance work?evidence: absent

    There are essentially no impact evaluations showing that the negotiated-coordination mode (AI Safety Institute network MoUs, forum-shifting, multilateral declarations) actually produces regulatory convergence or reduces arbitrage — the AISI Network began only as a statement of intent at the Seoul Summit (Seoul Statement of Intent, 21 May 2024) and held its first operational meeting in November 2024, with no defined metrics or outcome studies, so these soft-law instruments are too new to have measurable effects. The closest analogue evidence is mixed and works through DIFFERENT mechanisms than this topic describes: Bradford's Brussels Effect documents de-facto convergence driven by market access rather than negotiated coordination, and the FATF transgovernmental-network literature shows peer-review mutual evaluation can drive AML convergence — but neither evaluates voluntary AI MoU networks, and FATF's effects come with well-documented unintended consequences (de-risking, financial exclusion). The plain finding: the evidence that AI-governance coordination 'works' is itself missing.

    Sources: Bradford 2020 (The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World, Oxford University Press); Nance 2018 (The regime that FATF built: an introduction to the Financial Action Task Force, Crime, Law and Social Change 69(2): 109-129; cf. Slaughter 2004, A New World Order, Princeton University Press); International Network of AI Safety Institutes — Seoul Statement of Intent toward International Cooperation on AI Safety Science (21 May 2024; network's first meeting San Francisco, Nov 2024)

• Open-Weight Frontier Release

  • Is the harm real?evidence: contested

    The empirical picture splits into two well-separated questions. (1) The MECHANISM that distinguishes open-weight release — that safety guardrails can be cheaply and irreversibly stripped once weights are public — is established: Qi et al. (2024) removed GPT-3.5 Turbo safety alignment by fine-tuning on only ~10 adversarially designed examples for under $0.20 (and the attack generalizes to Llama-2), and even purpose-built tamper-resistant safeguards (Tamirisa et al. 2025, TAR) were subsequently shown to be defeatable by adaptive fine-tuning (Qi et al. 2024, durability critique). (2) Whether this mechanism produces real-world CATASTROPHIC uplift is genuinely contested and, for the headline biosecurity case, currently unsupported: RAND's red-team study found no statistically significant difference in the viability of bioweapon attack plans produced with versus without LLM assistance (Mouton, Lucas & Guest 2024), and OpenAI's 100-participant trial found at most mild uplift over an internet baseline (Patwardhan et al. 2024). Honest caveat: these null/mild results are time-stamped to 2023-2024 frontier capability and to biothreats specifically; the marginal-risk framework (Kapoor, Bommasani et al. 2024) concludes the evidence base is too thin to characterize marginal risk across most misuse vectors, so 'no measured harm yet' is not 'no harm.'

    Sources: Kapoor, Bommasani, Klyman, Longpre et al. 2024, 'Position: On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models', PMLR 235 / ICML 2024 (arXiv 2403.07918); Mouton, Lucas & Guest 2024, RAND RR-A2977-2, 'The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks: Results of a Red-Team Study'; Qi, Zeng, Xie, Chen, Jia, Mittal & Henderson 2024, 'Fine-tuning Aligned Language Models Compromises Safety', ICLR 2024 (arXiv 2310.03693); Tamirisa et al. 2025, 'Tamper-Resistant Safeguards for Open-Weight LLMs', ICLR 2025 (arXiv 2408.00761); Qi, Wei, Carlini, Huang, Xie, He, Jagielski, Nasr, Mittal & Henderson 2024, 'On Evaluating the Durability of Safeguards for Open-Weight LLMs' (arXiv 2412.07097); Patwardhan et al. 2024, 'Building an early warning system for LLM-aided biological threat creation', OpenAI

  • Does governance work?evidence: absent

    There is no impact evaluation showing that any specific weight-release governance regime reduces downstream harm, because no binding regime has been implemented and measured: California SB-1047's release-conditioning framework was vetoed in September 2024, and the EU AI Act's open-source carve-outs (Recital 102, Art. 53(2)) exempt most open-weight models (those below the systemic-risk compute threshold) from the documentation obligations that would generate evaluable conduct. The structural obstacle is also documented: Kapoor, Bommasani et al. (2024) characterize open-weight release as effectively irreversible and poorly monitorable once weights are public, so post-release governance has little to act on. The closest analogue evidence — technology export controls — is mixed and points to circumvention: commentators argue blanket export controls on freely copyable open-source models cannot work (Just Security 2024), and independent analyses of the post-2022 semiconductor controls document displacement to less-regulated channels (smuggling, threshold-tuned chip variants, cloud access) rather than disappearance of activity (e.g., CSIS, FPRI 2024), suggesting recipient-restriction regimes face the same leakage problem for weights. (Caveat: this is analogical, not direct evidence about weight-release governance, which remains unmeasured.)

    Sources: Kapoor, Bommasani, Klyman, Longpre et al. 2024, 'Position: On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models', PMLR 235 (arXiv 2403.07918); California SB-1047 (2024, vetoed by Gov. Newsom 29 Sep 2024); EU AI Act Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, Recital 102 & Art. 53(2) open-source exemptions; Just Security 2024, 'Export Controls on Open-Source Models Will Not Win the AI Race'; CSIS, 'The Limits of Chip Export Controls in Meeting the China Challenge' and FPRI 2024, 'Breaking the Circuit: US-China Semiconductor Controls' (export-control circumvention analogue)

• Individual Redress

  • Is the harm real?evidence: established

    The premise behind redress — that affected people lack meaningful recourse against automated decisions — is real, but the flagship instrument is weaker than commonly assumed. Wachter, Mittelstadt & Floridi (2017) show GDPR creates only a limited 'right to be informed,' not a binding 'right to explanation' of specific decisions; and controlled work finds the explanations actually delivered do not measurably improve lay decision accuracy over showing the bare AI prediction (Alufaisan et al. 2021; and a 2022 meta-analysis by Schemmer et al. — screening 393 articles down to 9 in the final analysis — reports 'no effect of explanations on users' performance compared to sole AI predictions,' even though XAI overall had a positive effect). Honest caveat: the legitimacy/dignity value of being heard is empirically well established in the procedural-justice tradition even where outcome accuracy is unchanged, so 'redress fails' depends on which aim is measured.

    Sources: Wachter, Mittelstadt & Floridi 2017 (International Data Privacy Law 7(2):76); Alufaisan, Marusich, Bakdash, Zhou & Kantarcioglu 2021 (Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on AI 35(8):6618); Schemmer, Hemmer, Nitsche, Kühl & Vössing 2022 (AAAI/ACM AIES '22, meta-analysis)

  • Does governance work?evidence: absent

    There is no rigorous impact evaluation showing that mandated redress mechanisms (right-to-explanation, appeal, human-in-the-loop review) actually reduce erroneous or unfair automated decisions — the evidence that the rule works is itself missing. The closest experimental analogues are discouraging: explanations increase humans' acceptance of AI recommendations regardless of correctness (Bansal et al. 2021), and algorithm-in-the-loop oversight can introduce racial disparities and exhibit automation bias rather than reliably catching model errors (Green & Chen 2019). The procedural-justice literature (Tyler 1990; Lind & Tyler 1988) robustly supports a legitimacy and compliance benefit of fair process, but it measures perceived fairness, not reduction of the substantive decision harm redress is meant to cure.

    Sources: Bansal, Wu, Zhou, Fok, Nushi, Kamar, Ribeiro & Weld 2021 (CHI '21); Green & Chen 2019 (Disparate Interactions, ACM FAT* '19); Tyler 1990 (Why People Obey the Law, Yale Univ. Press); Lind & Tyler 1988 (The Social Psychology of Procedural Justice, Plenum Press)

• Synthetic Content Provenance

  • Is the harm real?evidence: contested

    The harm provenance targets is real but concentrated, and the technical premise that the mandated signal survives is itself empirically shaky. Synthetic-media harm is well documented in two domains: non-consensual intimate imagery (Ajder et al.'s 2019 Deeptrace audit found 96% of deepfake videos were pornographic and effectively 100% targeted women) and impersonation fraud (the Arup case, ~US$25.6M / HK$200M lost via a deepfake video call). The honest caveat is twofold: a feared broad political-misinformation harm is not yet demonstrated at scale, and CS work shows invisible watermarks are removable in practice (Jiang, Zhang & Gong 2023, WEvade, evade detection via adversarial perturbation; Zhao et al. 2024 prove pixel-level watermarks are provably removable via regeneration attacks), so the provenance signal a rule would mandate is itself contested.

    Sources: Ajder, Patrini, Cavalli & Cullen 2019 (Deeptrace, 'The State of Deepfakes: Landscape, Threats, and Impact'); Jiang, Zhang & Gong 2023 ('Evading Watermark based Detection of AI-Generated Content', ACM CCS 2023); Zhao et al. 2024 (NeurIPS, 'Invisible Image Watermarks Are Provably Removable Using Generative AI'); Arup deepfake fraud (CNN Business, 2024-05-16, US$25.6M)

  • Does governance work?evidence: thin

    There is no impact evaluation showing that mandated provenance/labeling reduces synthetic-media harm; the major mandates (China's GenAI labeling Measures, effective 2025-09-01; EU AIA Art. 50, machine-readable marking) are too new and unevaluated, and the delivery layer is leaky: the C2PA spec's own Security Considerations document the strip-and-repost threat, and platform audits report C2PA/Content-Credentials metadata is stripped by essentially all major social platforms on upload (consistent with Imatag's 2018 finding that ~80% of uploaded images lose metadata, only ~15% retaining it). The closest analogue evaluation literature — Pennycook, Bear, Collins & Rand (2020), the 'implied truth effect' — gives reason for caution rather than confidence: labeling only some content can make unlabeled false content seem more credible, so a partial-coverage provenance regime could backfire.

    Sources: Pennycook, Bear, Collins & Rand 2020 (Management Science 66(11):4944-4957, 'The Implied Truth Effect'); China Measures for Labeling AI-Generated Synthetic Content (eff. 2025-09-01); EU AI Act Art. 50; Imatag 2018 metadata-stripping study (~80%); C2PA Security Considerations (spec.c2pa.org) on manifest removal

• Training-Data Rights

  • Is the harm real?evidence: contested

    That foundation models ingest copyrighted and personal works without consent is undisputed; whether that ingestion produces legally cognizable reproduction harm is genuinely contested. The CS evidence that models can memorize and emit verbatim training text is robust and replicated — Carlini et al. (2021) extracted hundreds of verbatim sequences (including PII) from GPT-2, and follow-up work (Carlini et al., Quantifying Memorization, ICLR 2023) showed extraction scales log-linearly with model size and with example duplication. Honest caveat: verbatim reproduction is the exception, not the norm — the UK High Court held that Stable Diffusion's model weights never stored copies of the training images (defeating the secondary-infringement theory), and Getty abandoned its primary training-infringement claim at trial for lack of evidence, so whether the empirical phenomenon amounts to actionable harm (rather than transient, non-expressive use) remains the open question driving NYT v. OpenAI and parallel regimes.

    Sources: Carlini, Tramèr, Wallace, Jagielski, Herbert-Voss, Lee, Roberts, Brown, Song, Erlingsson, Oprea & Raffel 2021 (Extracting Training Data from Large Language Models, 30th USENIX Security Symposium); Carlini, Ippolito, Jagielski, Lee, Tramèr & Zhang 2023 (Quantifying Memorization Across Neural Language Models, ICLR 2023; arXiv:2202.07646); Getty Images (US) Inc & ors v Stability AI Ltd [2025] EWHC 2863 (Ch) (UK High Court, 4 Nov 2025 — no secondary infringement; primary training claim abandoned at trial); The New York Times Co. v. Microsoft Corp. & OpenAI (S.D.N.Y., No. 1:23-cv-11195; consolidated In re OpenAI Copyright Infringement Litigation, Apr. 2025; ongoing 2025-2026)

  • Does governance work?evidence: absent

    There is no impact evaluation showing that the CDSM Directive Article 4 TDM exception plus its Article 4(3) opt-out reservation regime actually reduces unlicensed ingestion or channels compensation to rightsholders — the evidence that the rule works as designed is itself missing. The only available evidence is early case law and doctrinal scholarship, which document the mechanism's contested operation rather than its success: in Kneschke v. LAION the Hamburg Higher Regional Court (on appeal, 10 Dec 2025) held that a rights reservation in natural language did NOT satisfy Article 4(3)'s machine-readability requirement, invalidating the opt-out (note: the first-instance Regional Court had left the Article 4 question largely open and the case ultimately turned on the Article 3 scientific-research exception, so this machine-readability holding is appellate and not yet settled — a further appeal to the Federal Court of Justice was permitted). Legal scholars characterize the Article 4 opt-out as practically difficult and unharmonized, with no observed market in TDM licences or systematic enforcement to evaluate.

    Sources: Kneschke v. LAION (Hamburg Regional Court, 27 Sept 2024, 310 O 227/23; on appeal Hamburg Higher Regional Court, 10 Dec 2025, 5 U 104/24 — opt-out held not machine-readable; further appeal to BGH permitted); Margoni & Kretschmer 2022 (A Deeper Look into the EU Text and Data Mining Exceptions, GRUR International 71(8):685-701); Quintais 2025 (Generative AI, Copyright and the AI Act, Computer Law & Security Review 56:106107)

• Transparency Obligations

  • Is the harm real?evidence: contested

    Documentation artifacts (model cards, datasheets) are well-specified as proposals and are genuinely adopted, but the empirical premise that mandated disclosure produces meaningful transparency is contested. Selbst & Barocas (2018) argue inscrutability and non-intuitiveness are distinct problems and that disclosing rules does not resolve the latter, and large-scale audits find documentation is sparsely and unevenly completed: a systematic analysis of 32,111 Hugging Face model cards (Liang et al. 2024) found environmental-impact, limitations and evaluation sections least often filled, and Bhat et al. (2023, 45 practitioners) found a substantial gap between the documentation proposal and actual practice. Honest caveat: the documentation frameworks themselves are real and adopted, so the dispute is about whether disclosure conveys decision-relevant information, not whether the artifacts exist.

    Sources: Selbst & Barocas 2018 (Fordham Law Review 87:1085-1139); Liang et al. 2024 (Nature Machine Intelligence, s42256-024-00857-z, 'Systematic analysis of 32,111 AI model cards'); Bhat et al. 2023 (CHI '23, 'Aspirations and Practice of ML Model Documentation', DOI 10.1145/3544548.3581518); Mitchell et al. 2019 (FAccT, Model Cards for Model Reporting); Gebru et al. 2021 (CACM 64(12):86-92, Datasheets for Datasets)

  • Does governance work?evidence: absent

    There is no rigorous impact evaluation showing that AI transparency mandates (model cards, training-data summaries) measurably reduce bias, misuse or accidents — the central regulatory assumption is empirically untested, partly because flagship mandates like EU AI Act Art. 53(1)(d) GPAI training-data summaries are only subject to AI Office enforcement/verification from 2 August 2026 (the obligation itself began 2 August 2025 for new models). The closest analogue, mandated consumer disclosure, shows small and context-dependent effects: Bollinger, Leslie & Sorensen (2011) found mandatory calorie posting cut average calories per transaction by about 6%, while Loewenstein, Sunstein & Golman (2014) review evidence that disclosure effects are frequently diminished or even reversed by limited attention and often change provider rather than recipient behavior. These are analogues, not AI studies; no study demonstrates that AI transparency disclosure achieves its stated downstream safety aims.

    Sources: Bollinger, Leslie & Sorensen 2011 (AEJ: Economic Policy 3(1):91-128); Loewenstein, Sunstein & Golman 2014 (Annual Review of Economics 6:391-419, 'Disclosure: Psychology Changes Everything'); EU AI Act Art. 53(1)(d) GPAI training-data summary (obligation from 2 Aug 2025; AI Office enforcement from 2 Aug 2026)

Related instruments

• EU AI Act · EU
• G7 Hiroshima AI Process Code of Conduct · G7
• Seoul Declaration on Safe, Innovative and Inclusive AI · global
• NIST AI RMF Generative AI Profile · US
• Brazil AI Bill (PL 2338/2023) · BR
• ASEAN Guide on AI Governance and Ethics · ASEAN
• African Union Continental AI Strategy · African_Union
• White House Voluntary AI Commitments · US
• Singapore Model AI Governance Framework for Generative AI · SG
• Japan METI AI Guidelines for Business · JP
• California SB 942: AI Transparency Act · US
• UNESCO Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence · UNESCO
• Provisions on the Administration of Deep Synthesis of Internet Information Services · CN
• Japan AI Promotion Act (Act on the Promotion of Research, Development and Utilization of AI-Related Technologies) · JP